Topical, Advanced-Novice Political Science Question for EZ

Dear EZ,

Why is there so much more support for the public option in the House than there is in the Senate? Does it have to do with demography, geography, etc.?

School me. I'm kinda slow. Got any charts?

Surprised Not to See My Name

Digby has a post up about a flowchart (of questionable origin) describing the possibles at various cabinet levels.

She seems to think that the Powell listing as a possible at Defense and State is a joke, I, again, fall back on the political favors argument. Powell endorsed Obama at a time when the race seemed to be tightening, his name on the list might be payback enough. Or Obama could be signaling to moderate GOP members that if they play ball with him, he'll play it back.

On a related note, I was telling Ging about my post defending Obama's consideration of Summers and other neoliberal, corporatist swine and the trouble, if only imaginary, it caused me. I, of course, had to explain who Summers is. She immediately became outraged that Obama would consider appointing a sexist to anything and said that she wanted to retract her vote. My explanation that no one was particularly upset about Summers "sexism" did not help. My explanation that the reaction the "science and math" speech was less about sexism as it was that Summers relied on a biological determinist argument in a socially constructed world did not help.

I now join you all in fervently hoping that Summers ain't appointed to shit.

Hopefully seeing RFK, Jr.'s name at EPA and Al Gore as Climate Czar might cool her fire. And that's politics!

Party of Hate

Just listened to a Talk of the Nation segment on how the Republicans can recover from the last two election defeats.

Fortunately, for you and I, the callers all seemed to be in agreement that the way forward was through an emphasis on "social issues," or as we like to call it, "hate." It seems that the more they can hate gays, immigrants, taxes, and single mothers, the better off they'll be.

Unfortunately for you and I, there were GOP spokespersons on the program that seemed to realize that while the anti-gay marriage stance is currently a winner, the trend it toward more gay rights. Young people especially aren't going for the anti-gay thing. Blacks and Latinos might be going for it, but they are unlikely to be voting Republican in significant numbers any time soon.

The best part was listening to them talk about immigration as if flat-out racism had nothing to do with it. Everyone was very eager to make sure that everyone else knew that Republicans were not anti-immigrant, but rather anti-illegal immigrant. Too bad they have all fallen into the habit of dropping the "illegal" part whenever they speak about the issue for more than three sentences. Apparently, GOP passions get stirred up on this issue, not because of the color of anyone's skin or the ways of their culture (heaven's no!), but rather the fact that illegal immigrants have, by definition, broken the law, and that is something that will just set the blood to boiling. Lord knows, the GOP has taken a strong stand against any illegality.

Santorum seemed like he wanted to jump out of his chair and give full-throated support to the "social issues" agenda, but he also wants to be president in 2013, so he kept it to a minimum.

Oh, this is fun.

Taking Their Time

Not sure why the vote count is so slow in Multnomah and Lane counties (Portland and Eugene), but with 70% or so of the vote counted in those two counties, Merkley has finally moved ahead of Smith. Right now it's by a few hundred votes, but with more than 125K left to count in Portland, where Merkley is winning 3-to-1, he should pull well ahead.

Measure 64 continues to pass. It is up by 15K or so, down from 25K earlier in the day. I'm not sure were going to make this one.

It's Not Over Yet

Why am I up at 8 in the morning? Because there's a Senate race still up in the air I can't sleep with that shit going down.

Oregon Live seems to have most up-to-date results.

From what I can gather, Lane county (home to Eugene) had a major glitch last night and only 33% or so of the ballots have been counted. They are also way behind on counting ballots in the Portland and Corvallis areas, so Merkley should pick up major votes there, but Smith is still ahead.

I am assuming that as Merkley goes, so goes Measure 64. It was passing last night, but should go down as blue ballots are counted.

I should also mention that the mayor's race Eugene is still up in the air, as is a very important bond for Lane Community College.

More later, surely.

[UPDATE]: Looks like the Minnesota Senate race will go into December. Sorry, Jen.

The Red Guard

We in Eugene like to argue about whether or not the Register Guard, our locally-owned newspaper leans liberal -- The Red Guard, or conservative -- The Register Greed. It's one of those things that keeps this town lively and provincial.

To tell the God's honest, the Guard is pretty liberal in the opinion section. Only their complete and total anti-union stance keeps the argument alive. Every now and again, however, the newspage throws something out there that is so biased for Republicans, I am forced to go with the Greed crowd (greed is good, no?).

Today's front page had a blurb about Palin being cleared in the ethics probe in Alaska. Now, you and I know that the Personnel Board investigation was a sham put on by Sarah's own people to clear her of wrong doing, but the blurb gives no hint of that. The article itself is amazing. Check out the original article from the AP, then read the RG's "edited" version.

Palin cleared in ethics probe

ANCHORAGE, Alaska –

Gov. Sarah Palin violated no ethics laws when she fired her public saftey commissioner, the state personnel board concluded in a report.

"There is no probable cause to believe that the governor, or any other state official, violated the Alaska Executive Ethics Act in connection with these matters," the personnel board's report said.

"Gov. Palin is pleased that the independent investigator for the personnel board has concluded that she acted properly in the reassignment of Public Saftey Commissioner Walt Monegan," her attorney, Thomas Van Flein, said in a statement.

An earlier, separate investigation by the Legislature found that Palin had abused her office.

Monegan said he felt pressure from Palin, her husband and her staff to fire a state trooper who had gone through a contentious divorce from Palin's sister. Palin denied the claim and said Monegan was fired in July because she wanted the department to head in a new direction.

Monegan said he was "perplexed and disappointed" by the latest report. It was prepared by Timothy Petumenos, an independent investigator for the Alaska Personnel Board.

"It conflicts with the first investigation and then casts doubts on both of them. So, it doesn't really resolve anything," he said.

Red Guard, indeed.

Baby Bear's Porridge

How desperate is Gordon Smith? He is trying to defeat Merkely by running as a Democrat, which has opened the door to an attack from his right. He must be feeling the heat, because he is running attack ads against Merkely and Constitution party candidate Dave Brownlow. Apparently, Brownlow is "too liberal" for Oregon. That's right, the man who says this on his website is "too liberal":

Our Constitution authorizes the federal government to perform a very specific - and very limited - set of functions; provide for the common defense of the states, secure our borders, coin (real) money, regulate inter-state and international commerce, protect our inalienable rights - and very little else!

Sounds like a commie to me, Gordo. Thank God your delightful blend of voting with Bush 90% of the time, but coming out against the war five years in when, it is widely upopoular, but then still voting for funding and against withdrawal is just right.

Lilith Was Right

David--

This is not an easy time to be conservative. In 6 days we might wake up to read that Barack Obama and liberal Democrats have seized total control of Washington.

Take it from me. For 20 years, I played Dr. Frasier Crane on TV, and it is not easy being openly Republican in a Democrat town like Hollywood. But even when the odds are against us, we must never stop fighting for this country.

Will you help stop liberals from seizing total control of our government?

Barack Obama and his liberal allies claim to support the working man. They want us to think they are all Joe and Jane Six Packs. But we all know -- that when they think no one is listening -- the liberal elite arrogantly snicker about the unwashed masses in fly-over country and suburbia.

They ridicule Sarah Palin...they laugh at Joe the Plumber...and they condescendingly refer to middle-class Americans as "bitter."

Will you help stop the liberal agenda?

America doesn't want Barack Obama and a rubberstamp liberal Senate to "spread the wealth around."

Regular people get it. The liberal agenda of bone-crushing tax hikes and out-of-control spending in the middle of an economic crisis is a disaster waiting to happen.

Will you join me in taking a stand against Barack Obama and the liberal agenda?

The 2008 election is one of the most important we'll ever live through.

With just 6 days until Election Day, time is running out to protect the firewall. So, we must move fast. Please contribute at least $30 today.

For all of us, there comes a time when the choices are so stark, the risks so great, that we have to take a stand.

Sincerely yours,

Kelsey

P.S. If you have contributed before, please do so again. A donation of $30 from you will make the difference between winning and losing in 1 or 2 key Senate races.

This Is Not Good

Reprehensible? A legit issue? I find myself saddened when this commercial comes on.

Minimizing Expectations

Seems like maybe Orrin has given up on the House and the Presidency.

Defeating Senator Landrieu will not only give us a solid fiscal conservative in State Treasurer John Kennedy, it will stop the liberals from seizing complete control of the Senate and forcing their far-left agenda on the American people.

Please note that Orrin has been reduced to pinning his hopes on races where a poll have his guy 5 points behind with two weeks to go. This is Kennedy's internal poll. Rasmussen has Landrieu by 13.

This is what winning feels like. I like it.

Meet a Candidate

Exactly as it appears in the Oregon Voters Guide:

State Treasurer

Michael
Marsh

Constitution

Occupation: Maintenance

Occupational Background: a variety of jobs

Educational Background: some college

Prior Governmental Experience: none

America is in danger and Oregon on the verge of collapse. Leaders of the Democrat and Republican parties with their Ivy League educations are either incredibly stupid or are deliberately destroying us. It is time to return to Constitutional Government and become once again a land of opportunity for Americans. We have entered, voluntarily, into a slave relationship, with our government masters.

Government licenses our activity from travel to marriage, they tax us to drain us of our sustenance, and then use our money to hire police and bureaucrats to come into our homes with warrants to kidnap our children, steal our property and deprive us of our liberty with no remedy-at-law.

In 2007 the legislature, including Ben Westlund, voted to put a toll on every road, bridge and bike path in Oregon with photo tracking devices. Once the Federal Real I.D. Act, which puts everyone into Biometric data base, is completed the Democrat/Republican leadership plan to merge the banks with the States and Federal treasury into one entity with all financial transactions being done by computer. Anyone who objects to any government policy will have their identification suspended and be unable to buy groceries and pay rent.

As State Treasurer, I will uphold and defend the Oregon Constitution.

(This information furnished by Michael Marsh.)

A Reminder of What's at Stake

From Orrin Hatch:

With only 21 days until Election Day, liberals have their eyes on a prize almost as valuable as capturing the White House -- a filibuster-proof Democrat Senate majority.

That's why MoveOn.org and their allies are pouring it on to seize total control of our government.

These liberals will rubber-stamp Obama's far-left agenda and we'll be reading headlines like these next year if Obama captures the White House:

"Hillary Clinton Confirmed To Supreme Court"

"Obama Signs Record Tax Increase"

Right now, a handful of conservative Senators are all that stand in the way of Democrats and their tax-and-spend agenda. But, if liberals get their way, it will be impossible to stop them!

Why Bother?

Looks like the new bailout bill contains tax breaks for "small business" in order to attract the votes of the House Republicans.

This Is What Blogs Are For, No?

Writing out of frustration:

Member-run unions are, apparently, great, right up until the moment that your members start telling you that they would like to not receive quite so many mailings related to the upcoming political election. At that point, they somehow (get a team of monks on it!) transition from members whose opinions we value and nominally represent into whiners who need to suck it the fuck up and realize that if Obama loses this election we're all going to hell.

I agree that unions have the right and duty to inform their members about the upcoming election, who the union supports, and why. I fully accept that union members genuinely value receiving the union's opinion and facts about the candidates. I think our greatest resource is our willingness to hit the streets and organize, while the Republicans split their time between the pews and the links. I think this election is very important.

I also happen to believe that one of our greatest strengths is our willingness to listen to our members. We are not thundering from the pulpit, we are not hinting that everyone will lose their jobs if they don't vote for the pro-business party. We listen to our members. We can tailor our message to their needs. We shape them and, in turn, they shape us. We're all in it together.

That's why I refuse to see members who complain about the relentless propagandizing from their union as anything less than brothers and sisters who are trying to tell me that the union's tactics are not sitting right with them. And I'm not talking about Republican members here. I am talking about people who are protesting the sheer volume of the propaganda they receive from their union(s), from mailings to phone calls. We need to listen to them at the risk of alienating them. Only listening to the voices that agree with us is what got us into this fucking mess in the first place. (I mean that sentence as broad as it reads. The whole idea of the organizing model is that we engage all of our brothers and sisters. If the organizing model is not the way out of every mess we're in, I still haven't heard what is).

Anyway, back to the grind. You might be surprised to find that your union supports all the Democrats and is against all the Republicans. You will receive 1-2 mailings per day to that effect for the next 38 days.

Get Off My Lawn

I am not a big fan of Gordon Smith. I am really not a fan of seeing his commercials during The Simpsons and King of the Hill. Those are my shows. I'd like to believe that only liberals enjoy them.

I do know different. How someone could enjoy The Simpsons and vote Republican is beyond me, but they obviously do. Still. I shouldn't have to watch your horrible, horrible commercials where a woman who was raped in 1986 tries to blame Jeff Merkley for not supporting some bill in 2007 would have "prevented" crimes like this in the future. Because, you know, serial rapists are worried about the length of the sentance they might endure.

Of course, the whole problem is the Republicans continue to kick our ass at this game. Some Republican state Rep probably dropped a whole host of no-hope extremeist measures in the hopper. Merkely didn't bring them up for a vote, because they had no chance. Now the GOP can say that he opposed this or voted against that. He's pro-rapist for fuck sake because he didn't support the "Behead all rapists before they have a chance to speak in court" bill. Disgusting.

Anyway, Gordo, get your commercials off my shows. There are plenty of JAG and Murder, She Wrote reruns on at the same time. Those are your people. Get them fired up.

I Weep as I Type

Dear Sirs,

I would like to apply to be a columnist for your fine publication. I believe I would fit in with the fine stable of men and women who currently write for your paper. As I have no experience, other than a blog I would prefer you don't find out about, I have taken the liberty of writing out the topic sentences for a year's worth of columns for the 2012 presidential election. I hope you will see that I would certainly fit right in fit right in, I certainly would.

November 2011:
Struggling economy, unpopular war with Iran leave McCain vulnerable.

Field of Democratic challengers strong, fight it out to see who will assuredly replace McCain.

December 2011:
Wal-Martification of American economy has left America prey to powerhouses China and India.

Democratic front-runner has glaring personality flaw that could spell defeat in November.

Democratic front-runner stumbles in debate, challengers bear down.

January 2012:
Crucial month for Democrats, nation.

Surprisingly strong third-place showing in Iowa reshuffles Democratic pack.

Democrats in-fighting, should be focusing on McCain.

February 2012:
New Hampshire narrows Democratic field to three, reform on agenda for all.

Super Tuesday surprise hands nomination to upstart Democratic challenger.

McCain camp "ready for fight," but internal squabbling blunts message.

March 2012:
Democratic nominee calls for focus on "issues," not "personalities," blasts McCain's handling of economy, war.

Economy, health care crisis continue to be burden to Americans, McCain struggles to find answers.

April 2012:
McCain cheers on Diamondbacks, Democratic challenger has ties to several teams.

Campaign trail gaffe: Democratic challenger questions need for rural Oregonians to use dogs to hunt cougars; appeal to far-left PETA crowd could hurt support in rural America.

May 2012:
Far-left attacks on McCain could backfire, Democratic challenger calls for "clean campaign."

Continued GOP use of 9/11 as justification for war a falsehood, Democrats need to go on the attack.

Questions raised about patriotism of Democratic challenger.

June 2012:
Democratic challenger grew up in same hometown as notorious child molester.

McCain says economy will rebound, accuses Democratic challenger of hoping it continues to fail.

Civil war in Kerplekistan: McCain blames Muslim extremists, Democratic challenger says "wait and see" approach best.

July 2012:
Democratic challenger's spouse went to Harvard, Yale, never eaten bacon-cheddar potato skins at TGI Fridays.

Cindy McCain embraces role as first lady, loves babies.

August 2012:
Republican insiders surprisingly say Palin has learned from last four years, ready to lead.

McCain would need spectacular convention to revive hopes of retaining the presidency.

Questions about McCain's health show prejudice among Democrats, do not belong in campaign about "issues."

September 2012:
Historic convention bounce has McCain barely trailing in polls; McCain resilient, America still loves Palin.

Where is Democratic challenger? Should Dems have picked other guy?

Allies in Middle East say weak America could destabilize tense situation.

Perhaps only McCain could get bipartisan support necessary to accomplish "Democratic" reforms.

October 2012:
Campaign turns nasty, as Democratic challenger accuses McCain of performing poorly on economy, war.

Vice Presidential debate shows that pitbull Palin, GOP not ready to back down.

Both McCain and Democratic challenge declare debate success, ready for stretch run.

On eve of historic election, America divided, ready for change.

November 2012:
Historic re-election shows that maverick McCain has mandate for change.


I can haz journamalism job now?

Holy Fucking Shit!

I know we try to make the political analysis a little more sophisticated than "HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!!!," but in this case, "HOLY FUCKING SHIT!!1!!11one1!!"

www.superheroticket.com

Three guesses which superheroes are running for president and vice president.

Did you get them? Be honest.

Finally, Someone Willing to Stand Up for the Big Guy

A few quotes in the Register-Guard from a house party to watch the McCain speech (40 people attended. I'd say 30-35 met at the AFL-CIO to go canvassing for Obama last night).

Of all the things she likes about the Republican platform and McCain, Rosemary Nichols said she especially welcomes the feeling that she’s being rewarded for her hard work and prosperity.

“I’m tired of being made to feel guilty for being successful — that’s the American dream,” she said. “We need to get back to being proud to be an American, and proud to be a successful American.”

Then there is Jennifer Gaskill, who hates partisan politics, but loves it when the Republicans really stick it to the Dems.

“I’m so tired of the partisan stuff. He legitimately and honestly wants what’s best for our country and our families,” Gaskill, 39, said. “I’m with him on that.”

After Wednesday’s speech by Palin, McCain did a wonderful job of adding his story to her message, Gaskill said.

“When he got up there tonight, he came off as very presidential,” she said. “She got up there and her speech was basically, ‘Don’t mess with me.’ I think they will complement each other very, very well.”

And then the capper for over-exuberance from Hal Reed, chairman of the Republican Party of Lane County:

Oregon is in play for McCain and Sarah Palin, and I want you to write that down.

Consider it noted, Hal. See you in November.

Heart Does Not Heart McCain-Palin

Since we all do the politique and the musique:

ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — Blasting through the Republican convention hall is the 1977 hit "Barracuda" by rock band Heart.

It's a shout-out to Sarah Palin. When she played basketball in high school, the soon-to-be Republican vice presidential nominee earned the nickname "Sarah barracuda" for her fierce competitiveness.

Some of her opponents revived the "Sarah barracuda" nickname after she became mayor of her hometown, Wasilla, in 1996, defeating a three-term incumbent.

UPDATE: Ann and Nancy Wilson of Heart said Thursday night that Universal Music Publishing and Sony BMG have sent a cease and desist notice to the McCain-Palin campaign over their use of 'Barracuda.'

"We have asked the Republican campaign publicly not to use our music. We
hope our wishes will be honored," the group said in a statement that said they "condemn" the use of the song at the Republican convention.