Thursday, September 25, 2008

State of the Race; or, Why I Wanna Blog About Moosic!

  1. Increasingly, the only meaningful "analysis" out there is right here. I'm not sure which OG constituents (besides Ash!) are even living in contested states at this point. In light of that fact, lemme say this: I cannot stop watching the punditry, and I won't stop laughing at and reviling in the obscene television advertisements, but it's clear that what's going to win this race has less to do with the airwaves and more to do with stumping, GOTV, and other "retail" tactics within selected precincts in selected places (OH, CO, FL, NV, MI).
  2. That's exactly why Joe Biden remains a shrewd (I'm stopping short of saying "brilliant") pick for veep: all gaffes aside, he can stump avec gravitas and "like-ability" in some of the places mentioned above, and that's really all that matters barring major "events." HRC and WJC can and should join in - I'd love to see Bill in NC and VA, en particulier - and I suspect they will. As concerns our current poll, I think the worst thing for HRC's 2012 prospects would be to put a half-assed effort behind Barry. Chalk it up to "enlightened self-interest," but I think we're past the point where she can be blamed for whatever insane supporters of hers are running around making noise. Worse, I think we're adding to a GOP trope by harping on the issue. Not that any undecided voters are reading this, natch..
  3. Somebody should hi-five Barry Obama for not following McCain into delaying the debates and further "politicizing" the Bail-Out (whatever the eff that's supposed to mean.) It seems like the obvious move in hindsight, but I for one was terrified as of yesterday that he'd cave. I think his calm/cool/collected persona and his willingness to let the Dem congressional leadership lead are as presidential (i.e., 'leaderly') as all get-out - as much as the "race speech," albeit in a different way.
  4. McCain is more than on the ropes at this point. There was a really cool conversation with (my guilty pleasure) Chris Matthews on Rachel Maddow last nite that I'd gladly present in lieu of my point, but I cannot locate a youtube. In short, Matthews pointed out that McCain is reaching a point of diminishing returns when it comes to his "maverick" decisions. At a certain point, even the best-intentioned of these left-field, game-changing gestures (supporting the surge, nominating Palin, suspending his campaign) will start to seem less like "leadership" and more like the reckless last gasps of an unstable individual who will do anything to win. Obama need only provide a calm contrast and continue running his race against Reagan/Bush/"the Ownership Society:" if we continue to talk about the economy (and do the "retail" thing mentioned above), we will win. Step one, BHO, is getting the bail-out passed with a bunch of Keynesian strings (accountability, govt. equity, no CEO comp, a new stimulus bill). Let me repeat, as I know this sounds counter-intuitive coming from a left-leaner: the Dems should define the bill, pass it, and own it. This is the time to see if a Keynesian neoliberalism is a possibility, and to tie financial markets' sufficiency to public investment, job creation, etc...This way the Dems could claim the mantle of "fiscal responsibilty" without ceding their (alleged) identification with working America. (note - This should happen at a pace set by Chris "lexdexter's Dad" Dodd, not Hank Paulson et. al. ...why it needs to go down by this weekend is a question you'd have to ask those pigs.)
  5. Obviously Sarah Palin is sinking fast. All that's left is for Joe Biden to do the yeomen's work of beating her in the debate without seeming like a condescending chauvinist pig. Can he do it? I dunno.
  6. Kinda hoping for a macro-level discussion of the race at this point....anybody?

6 comments:

  1. Lex-

    thanks for reminding me I am still technically a Georgian. Hello, absentee ballot.

    Jason

    ReplyDelete
  2. McCain really seems to have backed himself into a corner. His actions seem to be those of a desperate man. He has nothing to do with the bailout being negotiated and if it is anything other than what he says he wants (at least he's being vague), then one can question his "leadership" skills. If he votes with Bush, then he can be painted as a Bush III even more. If he votes with the Dems, (assuming there isn't a nearly unanimous bill), then he has nothing on Obama. Plus, Obama can say he got the same shit done without running around like the proverbial chicken.

    The press is going to kill McCain for the debate shit. They spent millions of dollars moving people around, would need to refund the ad purchases, etc. I can't see how this is anything but a huge blunder.

    The polls haven't made sense for a long time. Everywhere I go, Obama signs, shirts, stickers, and buttons are all over the place. McCain propaganda sitings are rare. I've heard the same thing about elsewhere. Palin helped briefly, but how long can you ride the "my VP choice was tactically shrewd" momentum? Not to November. Obama is rising in the polls and I bet internal polling shows that the undercount on students, blacks, and new voters is huge.

    It seems like this thing is finally turning around.

    ReplyDelete
  3. McCain's downfall lies in his vanity and reliance on a public image that is eight years out of date. After Obama's DNC speech, McCain decided to steal the spotlight, and it never left him.

    And as we all know, old white men don't look good in strong light, what with the legislative history, lying, and liver spots.

    When he demanded the spotlight, he assumed he'd be able to coast on his 2000 reputation, not realizing that his image had been subtly reshaped over the intervening years. He assumed wrong.

    BTW - no one's calling him out on his general "lock 'em in a room 'til they're done" negotiating style. This would be his diplomatic strategy for Iraq. Yikes.

    ReplyDelete
  4. robert reich on what we need inside the bailout bill for it to qualify as le 'not crap.'

    http://www.prospect.org/cs/articles?article=the_bailout_deals_crucial_details_2008

    ReplyDelete
  5. I continue to be with you on Biden. Even with all of his "gaffes" (I was tempted to put extra quotation marks around that stupid fucking term, partly because of the stupid fucking way it's used), I think there's a slow storm of awesomeness brewing in him that's gonna come in handy at a key point between now and election. CANT WAIT for Biden-Palin debate.

    ReplyDelete
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    ReplyDelete